Chinese Security Forces Accused of Firing into Crowd of Demonstrators in Lhasa, Tibet

International media reports say that sources in the Tibetan exile community, from India to New York, have confirmed that at least 30 civilian demonstrators were killed by Chinese security forces as they moved to end a demonstration in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, on Friday. Demonstrations had begun on Monday, and for four days, reports suggest the majority of demonstrations were peaceful.

On Friday, however, after what some journalists —including those reporting for the BBC and reportedly censored by the Chinese government— say were persistently harsh reactions by security forces to peaceful demonstrations. Throughout the week, demonstrations are reported to have spread from the capital Lhasa to other cities and smaller provincial towns across Tibet.

China has occupied Tibet for 60 years, claiming it is Chinese territory. Official reports from the Beijing government categorize the invasion as "liberation" of the people of Tibet from the tyranny of feudalism. Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the Chinese government has sought to quell separatist unrest in Tibet through economic development plan and mass migration of Han Chinese citizens to Tibetan territory.

On Friday, police sources allege, the peaceful demonstrations turned violent when a number of shops owned by Han Chinese Tibetan residents were attacked and burned. Due to the government's near total media blackout across Tibet and within China generally, it is not clear whether the vandalism rose to the level of inter-ethnic violence or whether it was provoked by security forces' excesses, as alleged by some rights groups and Tibetan exile activists.

Stability Key Goal Shared by Top Rivals in Pakistan

In the wake of the assassination of Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto, stability seems to be the key goal among top rivals in secular political leadership. The PPP has announced that in keeping with Ms. Bhutto's wishes, her son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a 19-year-old student at Christ Church College, Oxford, will take the helm of the party, with her husband, Bilawal's father, managing day-to-day affairs until Bilawal finishes his studies.

The Bhutto family has run the PPP since its founding, by Benazir's father, and the move appears to be an attempt to assure supporters that the movement will have continuity of personality and of vision. Asif Ali Zardari, Bilawal's father, has called for the United Nations to launch a special investigatory commission to uncover the plotters behind the assassination, as several opposition leaders and foreign officials say the Musharraf government lacks the credibility to carry out the probe.

The risk of severe destabilization across Pakistan has been evidenced by ongoing violence, bloodshed and arson, in what many have called a collective "outpouring of grief and anger" on the part of Bhutto supporters and those who blame rival factions for the plot. Pres. Musharraf has said he will not tolerate further violence, but a crackdown has not come, and he has reportedly told UK PM Gordon Brown he will consider international help in probing the killing.

Aides close to Bhutto and to opposition rival, fmr. PM Nawaz Sharif, have said they believe the plot may have originated inside the government itself, and for this reason, the government should not be permitted to lead the investigation. In response to calls from the PPP leadership to drop its boycott of the scheduled January elections, Sharif's party has reversed its position and said it will participate in the campaign, which many are still saying should be postponed to ensure a "free and fair" election.

Bhutto Assassination Signals Deep-running Political Rift that Could Destabilize Pakistan

Fmr. Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto, whose father was executed in the process of a military coup in the 1970s, and who has said she remained "broken" by what had happened to her during 5 years in military prison, was assassinated Thursday, while campaigning to restore free elections to her country. She had been the first woman elected PM in a Muslim country and had sworn she would combat radical fundamentalism and end the cycle of military takeovers.

Since her return to Pakistan in October, she has faced an attempt on her life that killed over 100 supporters, multiple incidents of house arrest, the suspension of the Constitution, martial law and the arbitrary replacement of several supreme court justices by then military leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf. While Pres. Musharraf himself claimed he had surrounded her home with more than 4,000 police and concrete barricades "for her own safety", Bhutto had accused several high-ranking members of Musharraf's security apparatus of ties to fundamentalist militia in the Northwest of the country.

Bhutto has said repeatedly that she returned to Pakistan knowing it would put her life at risk, but that she could not live comfortably in exile while she watched a major threat to her nation gather force and potentially destroy hopes for the restoration of democracy and the rule of law. She was considered the favorite to win the premiership in January elections, slated to be held after much wrangling, international pressure, Musharraf's resigning as military chief and the subsequent lifting of martial law.

Now, the entire global community must face the harsh reality that Benazir Bhutto's assassination poses a very serious threat to regional stability, and could plunge Pakistan into a confused multi-faceted power-struggle in which democracy is likely to lose out to authoritarian measures, which will be justified as an attempt to secuure Pakistan's nuclear weapons against radical Islamist militia groups.

In the US, condemnation of the assassination is near universal, and political and security analysts are warning of the dangers that could emerge either from "ignoring the threat" posed by radical groups that may have been responsible and by the Musharraf government's duplicity in both countering and collaborating with these insurgent elements, or by taking too aggressive a stance against any element internal to Pakistan's domestic political struggles.

Concern is widespread among governments that have backed Gen. Musharraf's regime that his transition to democracy has been slow and clumsy, or even halting and contrary, while his dealmaking with radical militia groups has contributed to their taking root and being emboldened across the poorly policed northwest border region.

In responsible political and diplomatic circles, pressure will be heavy on Pres. Musharraf to find and to subject to serious, open criminal prosecution those responsible, even should they be members of his top-level security establishment, as some Bhutto supporters allege.

That group is often viewed with suspicion both by democrats and by those radical insurgents most opposed to an open democratic state in Pakistan, and demonstrating the will to counter such elements could give the government the credibility it needs to work with opposition leaders and to effectively stabilize the remote border regions. Though at present, many fear the Musharraf government is too heavily reliant on the strong-arm support of rogue elements in the security establishment.

Liberty & Security Wrestle in Pakistan, as Elsewhere: What Does this Mean for 21st Century Democracy?

In many parts of the world, people are presently facing the question, on a societal scale, of whether or not free and open democracy can coexist with measures taken to protect against extremism. The question is an old one and goes to the root of whether it is possible, as a matter of natural law, to vote away one's rights or to vote against democracy.

To take a serious look at this question, we must first consider that: democracy is not an ideology and it is not a system; it is quite simply the idea that no form of government can be legitimate unless it is (regularly) chosen by a free and sovereign people. That can be implemented in a number of ways and need not be contrary to anyone's culture or faith.

But, a new problem has come into play in recent years, which has existed throughout modern times and essentially has always been part of the mix between populist rhetoric and authoritarian rule, from Hellenic city states to the Roman empire up through the 20th century: that is whether the need to be secure justifies overruling the protections that allow for a population of free individuals to choose its government.

Famously attributed to Ben Franklin, but possibly written by diplomat Richard Jackson is the tenet "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety". Clearly, one cannot secure one's liberty by stamping it out, just as one cannot save a village by burning it.

There are countless cases of dictators committing mass murder under the auspices of a prolonged security operation or state of emergency, so it should not be shocking that authoritarian rulers expect to persuade that mass detention, the suspension of civil liberties and attacks on opposition activists can be justified by security concerns, so long as no one is killed.

In Pakistan, we have seen a tragic loss of life —the authorship of which is still undetermined— when a bomb attack targeted Benazir Bhutto's celebratory convoy upon her return after years in exile. Now, we are seeing a general who has ruled as a quasi civilian leader for nearly a decade, targeting all the levers of a democratic state, and making the claim that security and extremism are his concerns.

Maybe. What if? But there is no way to trust in that justification, because as Ms. Bhutto quite rightly points out, extremists are being ignored by the 4,000 police surrounding her home, and the legal system has been dismantled by military decree, added to which we have the constnt problem of a general claiming he plans to save democracy by stamping it out.

There are clearly real security issues in Pakistan. As there were in 1864 when the United States was at war with itself, but still held national elections. As there are at all times in the Philippines, whose government confronts several rebel factions, or even in Spain, where Basque separatists continue to harass the democratic state.

In 2004, when the Spanish ruling party talked of suspending elections because there had been a terror attack, it was top ranking military and police who said they would not stand by and watch the constitution ignored by the government. When the US Dept. of Homeland Security, under Tom Ridge, contemplated suspending November elections, it was the president's own party that responded to public outrage and moved to bar such a move.

Security and liberty are not at odds. They are parallel streams whose tributaries often intersect, but they have their own course and should not be mixed for the political gain of any faction or ideology. This much we should be able to agree on. From there, we need to take a very serious look at what motivates a people to sign away its rights in the confusion of a dangerous moment.

Darfur Scene of Ongoing Ethnic Cleansing, Largest UN Peacekeeping Force Deployed

Sentido.tv :: Darfur, beset by years of bloody internecine violence, with the Khartoum-backed janjaweed militia killing civilians in numbers the US government has officially declared to be genocide, is still struggling to find a real beginning for peace. For years, human rights groups have pleaded with the international community to intervene, with or without the support of the Khartoum government. Finally, in August, the UN Security Council ordered the world's largest peacekeeping mission to secure Darfur.

Estimates at the time suggested that at least 200,000 people have been killed in Darfur, with more than 2 million refugees unable to return home, some since 2003. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon has noted the scale of the mission is "unprecedented" and told the Security Council "You are sending a clear and powerful signal of your commitment to improve the lives of the people of the region, and close this tragic chapter in Sudan's history".

After years of staunch opposition and threats, the government in Khartoum said it would "support" a UN force to police Darfur, but only after intense negotiations, the backing of China, a key Sudan ally, and the "toning down" of language attacking Khartoum for involvement in a deliberate campaign of genocide. China's backing allowed for a unanimous vote in favor of the peacekeeping mission.

But cooperating has been spotty, and human rights groups are now calling for a comprehensive probe of the murder of 10 peacekeepers and police, allegedly by the same groups accused of carrying out the slaughter of Darfur civilians. It remains unclear whether the Khartoum government is committed to peace, and the rebel groups have not all signed up to the framework for peace.

The world community is facing in the case of Darfur a grave challenge to the rule of law and the right of people to live free of state-backed killing. Issues of national sovereignty, state policing powers, interventionist diplomacy and regional unity have made resolving the fractious crisis a political hot-button among security council powers, so for now, much depends on the success of the peacekeeping mission in overseeing tenuous peace.

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Population, Land & Conflict

Lester R. Brown, EPI :: As land and water become scarce and as competition for these vital resources intensifies, we can expect mounting social tensions within societies, particularly between those who are poor and dispossessed and those who are wealthy, as well as among ethnic and religious groups. Population growth brings with it a steady shrinkage of life-supporting resources per person. That decline, which is threatening to drop the living standards of more and more people below survival level, could lead to unmanageable social tensions that will translate into broad-based conflicts.

Worldwide, the area in grain expanded from 590 million hectares (1,457 million acres) in 1950 to its historical peak of 730 million hectares in 1981. By 2004, it had fallen to 670 million hectares. Even as the world’s population continues to grow, the area available for producing grain is shrinking.

Expanding world population cut the grainland area per person in half, from 0.23 hectares (0.57 acres) in 1950 to 0.11 hectares in 2000. (See data at http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Out/ch2data_index.htm) This area of just over one tenth of a hectare per person is half the size of a building lot in an affluent U.S. suburb. This halving of grainland area per person makes it more difficult for the world’s farmers to feed the 70 million or more people added each year. If current population projections materialize and if the overall grainland area remains constant, the area per person will shrink to 0.07 hectares in 2050, less than two thirds that in 2000.

Having less cropland per person not only threatens livelihoods; in largely subsistence societies with nutrient-depleted soils, it threatens survival itself. Tensions among people begin to build as land holdings shrink below that needed for survival. The Sahelian zone of Africa, the broad swatch of the continent between the Sahara Desert and the more lush forested land to the south, which stretches from Sudan in the east through Mauritania in the west, has one of the world’s fastest-growing populations. It is also an area of spreading conflicts.

In troubled Sudan, 2 million people have died and over 4 million have been displaced in the long-standing conflict of more than 20 years between the Muslim north and the Christian south. The conflict in the Darfur region in western Sudan that began in 2003 illustrates the mounting tensions between two Muslim groups—Arab camel herders and black African subsistence farmers. Government troops are backing Arab militias, who are engaging in the wholesale slaughter of black Africans in an effort to drive them off their land, sending them into refugee camps. To date, some 140,000 people have been killed in the conflict and another 250,000 have died in the refugee camps of hunger and disease.

In Nigeria, where 130 million people are crammed into an area not much larger than Texas, overgrazing and overplowing are converting 351,000 hectares (1,350 square miles) of grassland and cropland into desert each year. The conflict between farmers and herders in Nigeria is a war for survival. As the New York Times reported in June 2004, “in recent years, as the desert has spread, trees have been felled and the populations of both herders and farmers have soared, the competition for land has only intensified.” [Complete Text]

World Creating Food Bubble Economy Based on Unsustainable Use of Water

Lester R. Brown, EPI :: On March 16, 2003, some 10,000 participants [met] in Japan for the third World Water Forum to discuss the world water prospect. Although they [would] be officially focusing on water scarcity, they [would also] indirectly be focusing on food scarcity because 70 percent of the water we divert from rivers or pump from underground is used for irrigation.

As world water demand has tripled over the last half-century, it has exceeded the sustainable yield of aquifers in scores of countries, leading to falling water tables. In effect, governments are satisfying the growing demand for food by overpumping groundwater, a measure that virtually assures a drop in food production when the aquifer is depleted. Knowingly or not, governments are creating a "food bubble" economy.

As water use climbs, the world is incurring a vast water deficit, one that is largely invisible, historically recent, and growing fast. Because the impending water crunch typically takes the form of falling water tables, it is not visible. Falling water tables are often discovered only when wells go dry.

Once the growing demand for water rises above the sustainable yield of an aquifer, the gap between the two widens each year. The first year after the line is crossed, the water table falls very little, with the drop often being scarcely perceptible. Each year thereafter, however, the annual drop is larger than the year before.

[...] Aquifers are being depleted in scores of countries, including China, India, and the United States, which collectively account for half of the world grain harvest. Under the North China Plain, which produces more than half of China's wheat and a third of its corn, the annual drop in the water table has increased from an average of 1.5 meters a decade ago to up to 3 meters today. Overpumping has largely depleted the shallow aquifer, so the amount of water that can be pumped from it each year is restricted to the annual recharge from precipitation. This is forcing well drillers to go down to the region's deep aquifer, which, unfortunately, is not replenishable.

He Quincheng, head of the Geological Environmental Monitoring Institute in Beijing, notes that as the deep aquifer under the North China Plain is depleted, the region is losing its last water reserve—its only safety cushion. His concerns are mirrored in a World Bank report: "Anecdotal evidence suggest that deep wells [drilled] around Beijing now have to reach 1,000 meters [more than half a mile] to tap fresh water, adding dramatically to the cost of supply." In unusually strong language for the Bank, the report forecasts "catastrophic consequences for future generations" unless water use and supply can quickly be brought back into balance. [Complete Text]

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Mozambique's 'Tree of Life' Project Turns Used Weapons into Signs of Hope

Sentido.tv :: In the wake of Mozambique's long civil war, lasting from 1976 to 1992, a group of artists, sponsored by Christian aid, set up the Transforming Arms into Tools (TAE) project in the nation's capital, Maputo. Sculptors use decomissioned weapons, and parts of weapons to make art, expressing the possibility of finding new ways to secure and advance civil society.

The TAE project encourages people to exchange weapons for useful tools, such as sewing machines, tools for farming and other items that can help sustain a productive, if modest lifestyle. The project is thoroughly humanitarian and aims to educate people, to remind them of the horrors of war, and to show that good will is more powerful than the technology of war.

The "Tree of Life" is one of the most inspired and spectacular results of the project. It was sculpted by Cristovao Canhavato (Kester), Hilario Nhatugueja, Fiel dos Santos and Adelino Serafim Maté, four artists from Mozambique. At 3.5 meters in height, the Tree of Life was installed at the British Museum in London, as part of its year-long feature Africa 2005.

The sculpture and some smaller pieces, which include fascinating renditions of regional African fauna, are touring different sites where they can deliver the message that in Mozambique culture has turned toward an enduring commitment to end armed conflict and build a society structured around creative expression and learning.

Mozambique's long and arduous civil war, which began in 1976, in the wake of the collapse of Portugal's dictatorship and the withdrawal of troops from resistant former colonies, lasted for over 16 years. An estimated 1 million people were killed, upwards of 1.7 million fled into neighboring countries, and several million more were internally displaced.

Graça Machel, wife of former South African president and Nobel laureate Nelson Mandela, is quoted as saying: "When you see this Tree, you don’t just see Mozambique, you see the face of Africa. You see in the sculpture all the conflicts which have gone on in the making of it, and that’s why it’s wonderful to see the great space the British Museum has given it..." [Complete Text]

Amnesty Reported in 2006: International Arms Trade 'Out of Control'

Sentido.tv :: Human rights group says 'opaque chain' of private interests increasing shipments of dangerous arms, with little supervision...

Amnesty International (Amnesty/AI) has published a new report examining the international arms trade, and its findings indicate there is little control on the expanding web of private interests seeking to profit from a proliferation of dangerous weapons. The report also illustrates the ways in which this scattering of dangerous weapons has led to severe human rights abuses.

AI arms expert Brian Wood told the Reuters news service "Brokering is increasingly common, with main contractors sub-contracting supply, transportation and collection in an ever lengthening and increasingly opaque chain". The supply chain is slipping beyond the grip of international arms control law and regulatory agencies.

His concern, as expressed in the report "Dead on Time: arms, transportation, brokering and the threat to human rights", is that this type of shady arms trafficking is stirring conflict and facilitating gross abuses of human rights, even as perpetrators are enabled to hide their caches from international bodies.

The Amnesty report makes several suggestions for curbing the near rampant spread of small arms and military equipment to developing countries and conflict zones. Among these suggestions is a more uniform regime of arms control laws, beginning at the national level and meeting international standards based on a global treaty framework.

It calls for "Making violations of UN arms embargoes a criminal offence in all states and in the case of serious violations, a crime with universal jurisdiction". Such a provision would mean that individuals serving in governments or linked to arms manufacturers could face charges in any country for violating any arms embargo anywhere.

The principle is that without this sort of barrier to the spread of weapons, the motive to profit by circumventing international arms embargoes against corrupt or tyrannical regimes or against sending weapons into conflict zones would too easily (as it does not) find a way to serve its interests, endangering possibly millions of lives.

[...] There is no clear message from any one government on its involvement in any of these transactions or whether they are seen to contravene existing human rights treaties or war profiteering provisions of domestic laws. But the aim of the report seems to be to raise awareness among officials of leading arms exporters.

The report ultimately calls for 13 specific steps to enhance international security measures throughout the arms trade, which it hopes will be more likely after a publication campaign to raise the public's interest in pushing officials to limit such exports where conflict or tyranny is enabled or perpetuated by this sort of trade. [Complete Text]

Water Resource Stress: Global Economic-Ecological Factor for the 21st Century

Sentido.tv :: More than 1 billion people already face fresh water scarcity, figure expected to double in 20 years' time

Water is one of the "fundamental building-blocks of life", as is often said in science, in biology classrooms, in medicine, theology, environmental policy debates, and in cosmology and space exploration. It is also a commodity whose economic reality is increasingly defined by chronic scarcity and often intensely uneven distribution.

One of the most vital problems regarding the global water supply is the fact that we are already over-exploiting it, draining vital fluvial systems and ancient underground aquifers that cannot be replenished. This, coupled with the population boom and increasing industrialization, urbanization and consumerization of emerging economies, means global scarcity is fast becoming the rule.

In highly populated regions with little or highly-variable rainfall, irrigation and industrial uses are putting unsustainable pressures on the supply of safe drinking water. At least 1 billion people worldwide currently suffer the perils and hardships of a lack of clean drinkable water.

Experts calculate that by the year 2025, some 1.8 billion people will be living in regions with "absolute scarcity" of water resources, meaning they will be unable to meet demand for drinking water, irrigation or industry. The result is likely to be widespread economic chaos, famine, migration, and conflict, if no remedies are put in place ahead of time.

The first and most obvious result of such shortages is mass migration, the other is the spread of water-borne bacteria and infectious diseases. The human body can only survive a few days without hydration, so "absolute scarcity" has 3 key effects:

MASS MIGRATION: those who suffer the most extreme scarcity must move in search of survival;

DISEASE: water that carries toxins, disease and even raw sewage is a last resort, but becomes a tempting resource, and so disease takes root and spreads among afflicted and displaced populations;

COLLAPSE OF THE FOOD SUPPLY: extreme drought and desertification often follow a period of intense or prolonged degradation of agricultural water resources...

In such situations, the problem is massive and severe enough to generate real political instability and be a security concern for national governments. This means law, treaty and military power come into play, and economic crisis can rapidly evolve, or degenerate, into armed conflict. [Complete Text]

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EPI, la Eco-Economía, en español